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Monthly sales levels to rebound
The February Halifax house price index has broadly followed the lead provided by the Nationwide Building Society with both series posting declines after healthy gains in previous months
There is no doubt that unseasonably poor weather and the ending of the stamp duty holiday have impacted the housing market in terms of creating a greater level of volatility in both prices and transaction levels.
Nevertheless, the underlying trend remains more positive than some of the recent headline numbers would suggest.
Indeed, the monthly level of sales should rebound in the coming months and may well end the year nearer to 70,000 rather the 60,000 area recorded at the back end of last year.
Meanwhile, even with more supply coming onto the market, the likelihood is that prices will resume an upward trend albeit at a more modest pace than seen during the latter part of 2009.
However the backdrop for the housing market is set to become gradually more challenging as public spending is cut, taxes go up and the cost of mortgage finance begins to rise.
Simon Rubinsohn is RICS Chief Economist
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